David Orrell

David Orrell. Writer and Mathematician



  • Modeling Synergistic Anti-PD-1/PD-L1 Immunotherapy Combinations with the Virtual Tumour. Frances Brightman, Eric Fernandez, David Orrell and Christophe Chassagnole. AACR Meeting, Philadelphia, USA, April 2015.

  • Reducing animal experiments with the Virtual Tumour. Eric Fernandez, Frances Brightman, Hitesh Mistry, David Orrell and Christophe Chassagnole. NC3Rs symposium, London, UK, 19 June 2013.

  • Predicting Torsades de Pointes (TdeP) risk from data generated via highthroughput screening. Hitesh Mistry, Frances Brightman, Eric Fernandez, David Orrell, Jonathan Swinton, Christophe Chassagnole. PAGE Meeting, Glasgow, Scotland, 11-14 June, 2013.

  • Virtual Tumour Clinical: Literature Example. Hitesh Mistry, Frances Brightman, Eric Fernandez, David Orrell, Christophe Chassagnole. PAGE Meeting, Glasgow, Scotland, 11-14 June, 2013.

  • The application of three-dimensional cell cultures in combination with the Virtual Tumor for designing optimal drug dosing schedules. Frances Brightman, Eric Fernandez, David Orrell, David Fell, Christophe Chassagnole. EORTC-AACR Meeting, San Francisco, CA, USA, 12th - 16th November 2011.

  • Predicting the effect of combination schedules on xenograft tumor using the Virtual Tumor. David Orrell, Eric Fernandez, Damien Cronier, Lawrence M. Gelbert, David A. Fell, Dinesh De Alwis and Christophe Chassagnole. AACR 102th Annual Meeting 2011, Orlando, FL, 2-6 April 2011.

  • Modeling the sequence-sensitive gemcitabine-docetaxel combination using the Virtual Tumor. Eric Fernandez, David Orrell, Caroline Mignard, Zina Koob, Damien France, Nicolas Hoffmann, Francis Bichat, David Fell, Christophe Chassagnole. AACR 102th Annual Meeting 2011, Orlando, FL, 2-6 April 2011.

  • Computer modelling of Nocodazole exposure on cell cultures in vitro. E Fernandez, G Johnson, D Orrell, C Snell, DA Fell, SH Doak and C Chassagnole. AACR-EORTC-NCI Molecular Targets and Cancer Therapeutics, Boston, MA, 16 November 2009.

  • Chronotherapy: Seliciclib dosing schedules determined using a detailed computational cancer model. AR Hardy, E Fernandez, C Snell, D Orrell, DA Fell and C Chassagnole. AACR 100th Annual Meeting 2009, Denver, CO, 18-22 April 2009.

  • Optimal cancer chronotherapeutic schedules of Seliciclib revealed by a systems biology approach. E Fernandez, A Hardy, D Orrell, L Ramsell, DA Fell and C Chassagnole. AACR 2008, San Diego, CA, 12-16 April 2008.

  • Modelling DNA Damage-Induced Apoptosis. A R Hardy, D Orrell, C M Snell, C Chassagnole, G Morris and D A Fell. ICSB 2007, Long Beach, CA, 1-6 October 2007.


  • Marshall McLuhan Lecture, Transmediale, Berlin, January 27, 2015.

  • Invited speaker, Peabody Museum of Archaeology and Ethnology, Harvard University, Cambridge MA, April 18, 2013.

  • Invited speaker, Breakthrough Capitalism Forum, London, May 29, 2012.

  • Invited speaker, TEDx Park Kultury, Moscow, April 9, 2012.

  • Invited speaker, Climate Change and its Impact on Preservation Management of Archaeological Sites, Athens, April 2, 2012.

  • Invited speaker, CAF Development Bank of Latin America, Caracas, March 20, 2012.

  • Cutting Edge lecture, Canal Savoir TV, Montreal, Aug 30, 2011.

  • National Business Book Award finalist, Toronto, May 12, 2011.

  • Cutting Edge lecture, McGill University, Montreal, March 10, 2011.

  • Featured speaker, World Technology Summit, , New York, Dec 1, 2010.

  • Keynote speaker, Central Saint Martins College of Art and Design, London, Nov 19, 2010.

  • Featured speaker, International Symposium on Forecasting, San Diego, June 20 - 23, 2010.

  • Keynote speaker, Agri Vision, Noordwijk aan Zee, Netherlands, June 17, 2009.

  • Keynote speaker, Forecasting Summit, Orlando, February 24, 2009.

  • Invited speaker, Edmonton International Literary Festival, Edmonton, Oct 2008.

  • Invited speaker, Art Center Global Dialogues on Disruptive Thinking, Barcelona, March 7, 2008.

  • Invited speaker, Conference on Regional Weather Prediction Modeling, Trieste, Apr 2002.

Selected research publications

  • Johanna P. Zmud, Vincent P. Barabba, Mark Bradley, J. Richard Kuzmyak, Mia Zmud, and David Orrell. NCHRP Report 750, Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 6: The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand, 2014. View online

  • Systems Biology Approaches to Cancer Drug Development. C. Snell, D. Orrell, E. Fernandez, C. Chassagnole and D. Fell. In A. Cesario, F. Marcus (eds.), Cancer Systems Biology, Bioinformatics and Medicine, Springer, 2011. View online

  • Commentary: In some ways the situation is even worse. D. Orrell. Foresight, 19, 16-17, 2010. Abstract

  • Using predictive mathematical models to optimise the scheduling of anti-cancer drugs. D. Orrell and E. Fernandez. Innovations in Pharmaceutical Technology, 59-62, June 2010. PDF

  • Systems economics: Overcoming the pitfalls of forecasting models via a multidisciplinary approach. D. Orrell and P. McSharry. International Journal of Forecasting, 25, 734-43, 2009. Abstract

  • Reply to commentaries on "A systems approach to forecasting". D. Orrell and P. McSharry. Foresight, 14, pg. 39, 2009. Abstract

  • A systems approach to forecasting. D. Orrell and P. McSharry. Foresight, 14, 25-30, 2009. Abstract

  • Dual feedback loops in GAL regulon suppress cellular heterogeneity in yeast. S. Ramsey, J.J. Smith, D. Orrell, M. Marelli, T.W. Petersen, P. de Atauri, H. Bolouri, J.D. Aitchison. Nature Genetics, 38, 1082-1087, 2006. Read Abstract

  • Feedback control of stochastic noise in the yeast galactose utilization pathway. D. Orrell, S. Ramsey,M. Marelli, J.J. Smith, T.W. Petersen, P. de Atauri, J.D. Aitchison, H. Bolouri. Physica D, 217, 64-76, 2006. PDF

  • A method to estimate stochastic noise in large genetic regulatory networks. D. Orrell, S. Ramsey, P. de Atauri, and H. Bolouri. Bioinformatics, 21, 208-217, 2005. PDF

  • Estimating error growth and shadow behavior in nonlinear dynamical systems. D. Orrell. Int. J. Bifurcat. Chaos., 15 (10), 3265-3280, 2005. PDF

  • Filtering chaos: A technique to estimate dynamical and observational noise in nonlinear systems. D. Orrell. Int. J. Bifurcat. Chaos.,15 (1), 99-107, 2005. PDF

  • Ensemble forecasting in a system with model error. D. Orrell J. Atmos. Sci., 62 (5), 1652-1659, 2005. (See also this unpublished earlier version which includes a test for ensemble error.) PDF

  • Dizzy: Stochastic simulation of large-scale genetic regulatory networks. S. Ramsey, D. Orrell, and H. Bolouri. J. Bioinformatics Comput. Biol., 3 (2), 1-21, 2005. PDF

  • Control of internal and external noise in genetic regulatory networks. D. Orrell and H. Bolouri. J. Theor. Biol., 230, 301-312, 2004. PDF

  • Evolution of "design principles" in biology and engineering. P. de Atauri, D. Orrell, S. Ramsey, H. Bolouri. IEE Syst. Biol., 1, 28-40, 2004. PDF

  • Model error and predictability over different timescales in the Lorenz '96 systems. D. Orrell. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 2219-2228, 2003. PDF

  • The spectral bifurcation diagram: Visualizing bifurcations in high-dimensional systems. D. Orrell and L. Smith. Int. J. Bifurcat. Chaos, 13, 3015-3027, 2003. PDF

  • Role of the metric in forecast error growth: how chaotic is the weather? D. Orrell. Tellus, 54A, 350-362, 2002. PDF

  • Model error in weather forecasting. D. Orrell, L. Smith, J. Barkmeijer, and T. Palmer. Nonlinear Proc. Geoph., 9, 357-371, 2001. (See also No more butterfly effect, a transcript of a 2003 radio show by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation on the role of chaos in weather forecasting.) PDF

  • Modelling nonlinear dynamical systems: chaos, error, and uncertainty. D. Orrell. D. Phil. Thesis, Oxford University, 2001. PDF