David Orrell

David Orrell. Writer and Mathematician



  • Ontario Securities Commission Academy, Toronto, November 16, 2017.

  • Marshall McLuhan Lecture, Transmediale, Berlin, January 27, 2015.

  • Invited speaker, Peabody Museum of Archaeology and Ethnology, Harvard University, Cambridge MA, April 18, 2013.

  • Invited speaker, Breakthrough Capitalism Forum, London, May 29, 2012.

  • Invited speaker, TEDx Park Kultury, Moscow, April 9, 2012.

  • Invited speaker, Climate Change and its Impact on Preservation Management of Archaeological Sites, Athens, April 2, 2012.

  • Invited speaker, CAF Development Bank of Latin America, Caracas, March 20, 2012.

  • Cutting Edge lecture, Canal Savoir TV, Montreal, Aug 30, 2011.

  • National Business Book Award finalist, Toronto, May 12, 2011.

  • Cutting Edge lecture, McGill University, Montreal, March 10, 2011.

  • Featured speaker, World Technology Summit, , New York, Dec 1, 2010.

  • Keynote speaker, Central Saint Martins College of Art and Design, London, Nov 19, 2010.

  • Featured speaker, International Symposium on Forecasting, San Diego, June 20 - 23, 2010.

  • Keynote speaker, Agri Vision, Noordwijk aan Zee, Netherlands, June 17, 2009.

  • Keynote speaker, Forecasting Summit, Orlando, February 24, 2009.

  • Invited speaker, Edmonton International Literary Festival, Edmonton, Oct 2008.

  • Invited speaker, Art Center Global Dialogues on Disruptive Thinking, Barcelona, March 7, 2008.

  • Invited speaker, Conference on Regional Weather Prediction Modeling, Trieste, Apr 2002.

Selected research publications

  • Johanna P. Zmud, Vincent P. Barabba, Mark Bradley, J. Richard Kuzmyak, Mia Zmud, and David Orrell. NCHRP Report 750, Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 6: The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand, 2014. View online

  • Systems Biology Approaches to Cancer Drug Development. C. Snell, D. Orrell, E. Fernandez, C. Chassagnole and D. Fell. In A. Cesario, F. Marcus (eds.), Cancer Systems Biology, Bioinformatics and Medicine, Springer, 2011. View online

  • Commentary: In some ways the situation is even worse. D. Orrell. Foresight, 19, 16-17, 2010. Abstract

  • Using predictive mathematical models to optimise the scheduling of anti-cancer drugs. D. Orrell and E. Fernandez. Innovations in Pharmaceutical Technology, 59-62, June 2010. PDF

  • Systems economics: Overcoming the pitfalls of forecasting models via a multidisciplinary approach. D. Orrell and P. McSharry. International Journal of Forecasting, 25, 734-43, 2009. Abstract

  • Reply to commentaries on "A systems approach to forecasting". D. Orrell and P. McSharry. Foresight, 14, pg. 39, 2009. Abstract

  • A systems approach to forecasting. D. Orrell and P. McSharry. Foresight, 14, 25-30, 2009. Abstract

  • Dual feedback loops in GAL regulon suppress cellular heterogeneity in yeast. S. Ramsey, J.J. Smith, D. Orrell, M. Marelli, T.W. Petersen, P. de Atauri, H. Bolouri, J.D. Aitchison. Nature Genetics, 38, 1082-1087, 2006. Read Abstract

  • Feedback control of stochastic noise in the yeast galactose utilization pathway. D. Orrell, S. Ramsey,M. Marelli, J.J. Smith, T.W. Petersen, P. de Atauri, J.D. Aitchison, H. Bolouri. Physica D, 217, 64-76, 2006. PDF

  • A method to estimate stochastic noise in large genetic regulatory networks. D. Orrell, S. Ramsey, P. de Atauri, and H. Bolouri. Bioinformatics, 21, 208-217, 2005. PDF

  • Estimating error growth and shadow behavior in nonlinear dynamical systems. D. Orrell. Int. J. Bifurcat. Chaos., 15 (10), 3265-3280, 2005. PDF

  • Filtering chaos: A technique to estimate dynamical and observational noise in nonlinear systems. D. Orrell. Int. J. Bifurcat. Chaos.,15 (1), 99-107, 2005. PDF

  • Ensemble forecasting in a system with model error. D. Orrell J. Atmos. Sci., 62 (5), 1652-1659, 2005. (See also this unpublished earlier version which includes a test for ensemble error.) PDF

  • Dizzy: Stochastic simulation of large-scale genetic regulatory networks. S. Ramsey, D. Orrell, and H. Bolouri. J. Bioinformatics Comput. Biol., 3 (2), 1-21, 2005. PDF

  • Control of internal and external noise in genetic regulatory networks. D. Orrell and H. Bolouri. J. Theor. Biol., 230, 301-312, 2004. PDF

  • Evolution of "design principles" in biology and engineering. P. de Atauri, D. Orrell, S. Ramsey, H. Bolouri. IEE Syst. Biol., 1, 28-40, 2004. PDF

  • Model error and predictability over different timescales in the Lorenz '96 systems. D. Orrell. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 2219-2228, 2003. PDF

  • The spectral bifurcation diagram: Visualizing bifurcations in high-dimensional systems. D. Orrell and L. Smith. Int. J. Bifurcat. Chaos, 13, 3015-3027, 2003. PDF

  • Role of the metric in forecast error growth: how chaotic is the weather? D. Orrell. Tellus, 54A, 350-362, 2002. PDF

  • Model error in weather forecasting. D. Orrell, L. Smith, J. Barkmeijer, and T. Palmer. Nonlinear Proc. Geoph., 9, 357-371, 2001. (See also No more butterfly effect, a transcript of a 2003 radio show by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation on the role of chaos in weather forecasting.) PDF

  • Modelling nonlinear dynamical systems: chaos, error, and uncertainty. D. Orrell. D. Phil. Thesis, Oxford University, 2001. PDF